Study Says Deaths Rose After Storm Submitted by N.O.V.A. Times Picayune 06-22-2007 ************************************************ Copyright. All rights reserved. http://usgwarchives.net/copyright.htm http://usgwarchives.net/la/lafiles.htm ************************************************ The Mortality Rate In The New Orleans Area Ballooned After Hurricane Katrina, Possibly Because Residents Did Not Have Adequate Access To Doctors Or Hospital Beds, According To A Study Published Thursday By The City Health Director. The Study Relies On An Unorthodox Data Source To Support Its Conclusion That The Death Rate Escalated By 47 Percent In The First Six Months Of Last Year. Dr. Kevin Stephens Collected Newspaper Obituaries Because Official Data From Death Certificates Was Slow In Coming After The Storm. Stephens Tested Whether His Method Was Valid By Comparing The Number Of Obituaries Published In The First Six Months Of 2002 And 2003 With The Actual Number Of Deaths Recorded With The State During Those Periods. He Found A Strong Correlation. "This Is Not Conjecture. It Is Not Exaggerated. It Is Factual," He Said Thursday. State Authorities Disagree. The State Epidemiologist Released His Own Study Last Month Showing That The Mortality Rate In The Metro Area Climbed In The Early Part Of Last Year But Subsided To Pre- Storm Levels By June 2006. At The Time, State Leaders Stressed That Their Information Was Reliable Because It Came From Death Certificates. They Said The City's Practice Of Culling Data From Newspaper Obituaries Introduced Too Many Variables. Some Families Will Pay For Them, While Others Will Forego Such A Public Notice. Bob Johannessen, A Spokesman For The State Department Of Health And Hospitals, Declined To Comment Further, Except To Say, "The Bottom Line Is That There Are Problems In New Orleans. The Conclusion From Both Our Study And The City Study Is There Are Still Significant Challenges For The Health Care System." Stephens Acknowledged That His Numbers Are Imperfect. For One, The Times-Picayune Stopped Offering Free Obituaries After Katrina And The Fees Might Have Discouraged Some Families From Filing The Death Notices, He Said. The Obituary Pages Also Include Death Notices On Many Storm Evacuees Who Lived Most Of Their Life In New Orleans But Died Out Of State. The Study Is Conscious Of These Flaws. Stephens Said He Tried To Refine His Numbers By Weeding Out Obituaries For Evacuees Who Died Out Of State Or In Other Parts Of Louisiana. He Also Eliminated Obituaries For People Who Died During Katrina But Whose Families Did Not Print A Death Notice Until Months Later. He Published His Findings In The Inaugural Issue Of Disaster Medicine And Public Health Preparedness, A Journal Of The American Medical Association. Stephens Said The Report Had To Undergo Peer Review Before It Was Distributed. "That Is The Ultimate Critique Of The Validity Of Any Scientific Article," Stephens Said. "When You Just Post Information On Your Web Site, That Is Not Peer-Reviewed." Dr. James J. James, Editor Of The New Journal, Said The Public Cannot Extrapolate What Factors Might Account For An Increase In The Mortality Rate Since Katrina. He Said The Stephens Study Should Be A Springboard For Further Investigation, Particularly Into How The Age Distribution In New Orleans Might Have Changed After The Storm. If The Region's Population After The Storm Was Considerably Older -- Because, Say, Parents Did Not Immediately Bring Their Children Back To The Area -- That Could Buoy The Death Rate. "He Put Together A Very Clever Way To Measure What Was Going On," James Said Of Stephens. "As A Preliminary Study, It Makes People Say, 'We Need To Look At This Further.' This Is A Starting Point." Dr. Brobson Lutz, A Former City Health Director, Said State And Federal Authorities Should Mine Medicare And Medicaid Data For An Indication Of Whether The Storm Has Swollen The Death Rate. Records From These Programs Show How Many Patients De-Enroll Because Of Death. He Had His Doubts About The Stephens Study. "Neither I Nor Any Physician In The Trenches Whom I Know Has Seen Any Persistent Increase In Deaths In The Months Following Katrina," Lutz Said. For His Part, Stephens Said He Would Like To See Further Scientific Inquiry Into What Caused The Apparent Increase In The Mortality Rate In The First Six Months Of 2006. His Study Offers No Conclusions, But It Makes Note That Hundreds Of Hospital Beds Were Lost And Health Care Resources Were "Severely Compromised." "Did They Get Health Care Or Did They Not Get Health Care? Why Are They Dying?" He Asked.