N.O. Official Challenges Death Stats - State Belittles City's Health Crisis, He Says Submitted by N.O.V.A. Times Picayune 06-8-2007 ************************************************ Copyright. All rights reserved. http://usgwarchives.net/copyright.htm http://usgwarchives.net/la/lafiles.htm ************************************************ New Orleans' Health Director Lashed Out At The State Department Of Health And Hospitals Thursday For Releasing Conflicting Data That Question The Accuracy Of His Unpublished Findings That The City's Death Rate Has Spiked Drastically Since Hurricane Katrina. In A Letter To DHH Secretary Fred Cerise, Dr. Kevin Stephens Said He Was "Deeply Disappointed" That The State Agency "Chose To Release An Incomplete Mortality Report That Downplays The Health Care Crisis In New Orleans." Stephens Added That "By Denying The Significance Of The High Mortality Rates And Refusing To Take Action To Reduce Them, You Will Assure That Louisiana Continues To Rank 50th In The Nation In Terms Of Health Outcomes And That The Citizens Of Our Already Devastated Region Are Further Victimized." While He Recognized That The City Is Grappling With Serious Health Care Challenges, Cerise Said Last Week That The Numbers Cited By Stephens "Are Exaggerated." Dhh Spokesman Bob Johannessen Said Thursday That The Agency Stands By Its Report. As For An Allegation By Stephens That The State Is Showing "A Lack Of Concern" Over The "Unacceptably High" Number Of Deaths, Johannessen Said "That Couldn't Be Further From The Truth." Whether The Issue Is A Spike In Deaths, An Increase In Suicides Or Other Health Care Indicators, Johannessen Said "We Talk About Facts." Based On A Recent Analysis Of Newspaper Obituaries, Stephens Maintains That New Orleans' Mortality Rate Had Ballooned 47 Percent Since The Storm -- A Finding That Mayor Ray Nagin Cited In His State Of The City Address Last Week. Stephens Says His Report On The Death Rate Will Be Published This Month In The Journal "Disaster Medicine And Public Health Preparedness." He Has Declined To Release His Study, Saying He Cannot Do So Before It Is Published. A Separate Study By State Epidemiologist Raoult Ratard That Examined Louisiana Death Certificates By Month Showed The Death Rate Has Held Steady In The Region Since Katrina, With A Few Exceptions. Most Notably, The Death Rate Climbed In New Orleans In The Early Part Of 2006 Before Subsiding To Pre-Storm Levels About June. Neither The City Nor The State Study Offers A Completely Current Picture Of How Katrina Has Affected Mortality Rates. The City Report Accounts Only For Deaths Through June 2006, While The State Report Covers The Period Through Last August. Ratard Said The State Is Still Compiling Statistics Since September 2006. The State Report Also Does Not Include Mortality Rates For The Last Four Months Of 2005. In His Letter, Stephens Cited "Significant Problems" With The State's Report, Including That It Relied On Incomplete Data. Stephens Charged That It Is "Misleading And Irresponsible" For Dhh To Distribute Such A Report, Which He Said "Provides A False Impression To The Media, Policy Makers And The Public At Large." Stephens, Who Said He Too Stands By The "Reliability" Of His Report, Said That Even When The State's Statistics Are Used, The Findings Are Disturbing. While The Death Rate In The Region Remained Constant, It Climbed In New Orleans In The First Months Of 2006. In A Typical January, The City Logs About 12 Deaths Per Thousand Residents. In January 2006, The Rate Jumped To 15.8 Per Thousand -- About A 25 Percent Increase. "How Many More People Must Die Before Your Office Considers This A Serious Issue?" Stephens Asked Cerise In The Letter. Stephens Also Reiterated His Earlier Concern That By Using Louisiana Death Certificates, The State's Study Does Not Account For Out-Of- State Deaths. "More Than 150,000 New Orleans Residents Remain Displaced And A Significant Number Of Our Residents Have Died Out Of State," He Said. Johannessen Said Reviewing Death Certificates Is The "Accepted" Procedure Across The Nation For Calculating Mortality Rates. Analyzing Newspaper Obituaries, He Said, Injects "Way Too Many Variables" To Collect Any Sort Of Data That Would Offer Any Level Of Confidence. Johannessen Said The State Will Update Its Study As Soon The Agency Has Complete Data For The Rest Of 2006. "Our Goal Is To Provide Factual Information," He Said, "So Government Leaders Can Make Proper Decisions."