Short Account of Malignant Fever in Philadelphia – Chapter XIV (1793), Philadelphia County, PA Contributed to the PAGenWeb Archives by Marjorie B. Winter [marjw@cox.net] Copyright. All Rights Reserved. http://www.usgwarchives.net/copyright.htm http://www.usgwarchives.net/pa/pafiles.htm ********************************************************* C H A P. XIV. State of the weather. Attempt to refute the opinion that cold and rain extinguished the disorder. Average-table of mortality. THE weather, during the whole of the months of August and September, and most part of October, was remarkably dry and sultry. Rain appeared as if entirely at an end. Various indications, which in scarcely any former instance had failed to produce wet weather, disappointed the expectations, the wishes, and the prayers of the citizens. The disorder raged with increased violence as the season advanced towards the fall months. The mortality was much greater in September, than in August— and still greater in the beginning and till the middle of October, than in September. It very particularly merits attention, that though nearly all the hopes of the inhabitants rested on cold and rain, especially the latter, yet the disorder died away with hardly any rain, and a very moderate degree of cold. Its virulence may be said to have expired on the 23d, 24th, 25th, and 26th of October. The succeeding deaths were, mostly, of those long sick. Few persons took the disorder afterwards. Those days were nearly as warm as many of the most fatal ones; in the middle stage of the complaint, the thermometer being at 60, 59, 71, and 72. To account for this satisfactorily, is above our feeble powers. In fact, the whole of the disorder, from its first appearance to its final close, has set human wisdom and calculation at defiance. The idea held up in the preceding paragraph, has been controverted by many; and, as the extinction of malignant disorders, generated in summer or the early part of fall, has been universally ascribed to the severe cold and heavy rains of the close of the fall, or the winter, it is asserted that ours must have shared the same fate. It therefore becomes necessary to state the reasons for the contrary opinion. The extinction of there disorders, according to the generally-received idea on this subject, arises from cold, (Page 65) or rain, or both together. If from the former, how shall we account for a greater mortality in September, than in August, whereas the degree of heat was considerably abated? How shall we account for a greater mortality in the first part of October than in September, although the heat was still abating,? If rain be the efficient cause of arresting the disorder, as is supposed by those who attribute its declension to the rain on the evening of the 15th of October, how shall we account for the inefficacy of a constant rain during the whole terrible twelfth of October, when One hundred and eleven souls were summoned out of this world, and a hundred and four the day following? To make the matter more plain, I request the reader’s attention to the following statement :— Thermom. Deaths Wind Weather at 3 P.M. --------------------------------------------- Sept. 19 70 61 SW Fair 20 69 67 SE Hazy 21 78 57 Fair 22 83 76 Fair Oct. 10 74 93 NW Fair 11 74 119 W Fair 12 64 111 NW Rain 13 69 104 NW Fair 23 60 54 W Fair 24 59 38 NW Fair 25 71 35 S Fair, high wind 26 72 23 SW Cloudy An examination of this table, by any man unbiased by the received opinion, will, I think, convince him of the justice of the hypothesis which I have advanced—that the increase or abatement of the violence of the disorder, depended on other causes than the degrees of heat, cold, rainy or dry weather. Here is the most palpable proof. The average of the thermometer, the four first quoted days, was 75º—the average of the deaths 65.5. The second four days, the thermometer averaged 70.25º, although the frightful average of deaths was, 106.75. And on the last four (Page 66) days, the thermometer averaged 65.5, whereas the deaths were only 37.5. To facilitate the comparison, I subjoin an abstract of the preceding statement. Average of Thermom. Deaths Sept. 19, 20, 21, and 22 75 65 Oct. 10, 11, 12, and 13 70.25 106.75 Oct. 23, 24, 25, and 26 65.5 37.5 Thus, those days on which the mortality was at its highest stage, were five degrees colder than those when the deaths had been only five eighths. And the difference of five degrees between the second and the third four days, will not be pretended to account for a decrease of very nearly two thirds. To try the system of heat, cold, and rain, still further, let us examine the four last days of August. On those days the thermometer averaged 79.5 yet the deaths were only 20.75. I here annex the weekly average of the thermometer and of the deaths from the first of August to the 7th of November, for the reader’s inspection Average of Average Thermometer of Deaths August 1 to 7 84 9 8 to 14 85 7 5 to 21 83 7 22 to 28 77 15 29 to 31 85 17 Sept. 1 to 7 81 19 8 to 14 74 35 15 to 21 75 65 22 to 28 76 70 29 and 30 74 60 Oct. 1 to 7 71 72 8 to 14 71 100 15 to 21 58 67 22 to 28 58 39 29 to 31 46 18 Nov. 1 to 7 58 15 From the above table it appears, that during the (Page 67) month of September, there was a rapid increase regularly of deaths, except on the 29th and 30th, although the weather was growing cooler nearly the whole time. Let any advocate of the theory of cold and rain, compare the first week in September with the second week in October. He will see that the former was ten degrees warmer than the latter, yet the mortality of the one, was only a fifth part of the other. If he will, after this, say that the difference of 13 degrees between the second week in October and the 3d and 4th, will account for a reduction of the mortality from 100 to 67, and then to 39, I can only answer, that an inveterate prejudice too often clouds the reason, and renders it impossible to see the truth, however evident. In opposition to what I have advanced, it has been observed, that the unfavourable effects of very sultry days were felt for several succeeding ones. This is a weak resource, as will appear from examining the table. The heat of the first and second weeks in October was the same: yet the mortality in the second was nearly one half more than in the first. The heat of the fourth was equal to that of the third, although in the former the deaths were nearly double what they were in the latter. I hope, therefore, the reader will acknowledge, that the Great Disposer of winds and rains, took his own time, and without the means, either moral or physical, on which we placed our chief reliance, to rescue the remnant of us from destruction.